.png)
The mystery of my 5th great-grandfather Effingham Townley, likely of New Jersey in the mid to late 1700s, is giving me a headache. He’s a brick wall tracing my line back to him as a descendant. However, a will for an Effingham Townley dying in 1828 and naming a son John Townley is the brick wall from him tracing down the family line. Could inferential genealogy bridge the gap?
Inferential Genealogy is giving me a headache. Is anyone willing to help me examine a situation?
I found a will for an Effingham Townley in 1828. On a ‘mostly’ sourced Family Tree, I mapped out all of the Effinghams from a specific county in New Jersey. There are a few other Effingham Townleys floating around, but not from Essex County.
Can Inferential Genealogy break down my brick wall?
The tree on which this diagram was based does not follow John Townley, son of Effingham and Rhoda.
I have an ancestor, John Townley, who migrated from New Jersey to Cincinnati, Ohio. A death record indicated that John’s father was Effingham. Census records and death records for John’s children say his origin is New Jersey.
John’s son Asa Townley’s internment record, ordered by John—the father—said Asa was born in Elizabeth, Essex, New Jersey. Given that Asa’s siblings (thus John’s other children) are from New Jersey, I infer that they were from the same town, given their births around 1790.
I’m hesitant to extrapolate a birth location for Effingham from the same town. However, when I searched for Effingham Townleys in New Jersey in the mid-1700s, I found a number of men with this name. So, I sketched out the relationships to see the likely candidate for John Townley’s father.
↪️ Sign up for our newsletter and receive the free guide:
10 Online Genealogy Resources You Have to Try
I searched for Effingham Townleys in FamilySearch, which had source information. I found several men and their families already constructed in the tree. I discovered a few things:
The Effingham-George-Effingham-Charles-Col Richard line was approved by DAR for admission because George (between the Effinghams) was a patriot.
Additional written family histories have George’s lineage to a Col. Richard Townley (pre-Revolution).
After reviewing the DAR-reviewed line, I quickly ruled out the men on this line as my fourth great-grandfather’s line.
Effingham, son of George, would be too young to be my John Townley’s father.
George’s father, Effingham, was deceased before my John was born in 1801.
There were three other Effinghams in Essex County. Knowing my John’s birthdate of 1801, I could rule out a few more men.
Effingham Sr is not a candidate as he was deceased before John’s death.
Effingham Jr could be the father, but his children were born mainly in the 1720s, so it’s more likely that he’s not the father of John, who moved to Cincinnati.
Once again, assuming my original analysis places John Townley, born 1801 in Elizabeth, New Jersey, based upon his son’s death record (of which John provided the information), then the most likely candidate for John’s father is Effingham, son of Richard, who married Rhoda.
Now, my readers, I need your help. Inferential genealogy, as defined on the FamilySearch Wiki, is “how family historians can accurately deduce ancestors’ identities and many aspects of their lives by digging below “surface information” in genealogical records and combining information from several sources.
An inferential methodology is applicable in many situations, but it is especially helpful where records do not state relationships. I have several questions.
Can you answer them?
Do I have enough negative evidence to rule out who can’t be John’s father?
Do I have enough combined evidence to prove that John (born 1801, died in Cincinnati) is the same John mentioned in Effingham Townley’s will of 1828 in Elizabeth, New Jersey?
What evidence makes this theory probable?
Where are the flaws in this theory?
In short, am I doing inferential data wrong?
